Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough council is currently claiming that we do not have 5 years of deliverable new housing in the borough. As a result they are permitting almost every planning application for new housing on countryside (but strangely rejecting some on brown field sites). Their document can be found here:-
In response I have done a note to include with planning objections.
Note on dishonest 5 year housing supply.
The 5-year housing supply position is grossly unfair and dishonest. It is considerably out of date, estimates of deliverability have been made on wildly different basis to the assumptions made to calculate requirement.
Site with outline permission
These seem to have deliverability based on an incredibly depressed housing market.
· Smarts Road, Bedworth (app no 031398) could be built out faster than 30 homes within 5 years given a good demand.
· Camp Hill Phase 3 is delivering 92 homes a year in 2014/5 as apartments and small homes can be built out quickly. In the ridiculous scenario where we have under provided a market for 502 homes a year backdated to 2011, building out fully is clearly possible (see Note 1).
· Church lane, Weddington, (app no. 30775) had outline permission for 326 and a full application for phase 1. Clearly phase 2 would deliver far more than 84, an application has been approved to build 160.
· Land at Lower Farm Weddington (app 32336) is already under construction and being sold. Clearly the estimate of only 30 being competed in 5 years is dishonest. The site is being marketed as 2 developments to increase the rate of sales. Each selling 120 over 5 years in a good market is plausible.
· The two applications at the north end of the Long Shoot would take 2 years to get to first sales but could each then delver 120 homes in s good market over 3 years.
|Sites with Outline Planning Permission at April 2015|
|Council Application Number||Address||Locality||Settlement||Total Capacity (Gross)||Remaining Capacity within five years||Remaining Capacity after five years||developable within 5 years in relatively optimistic market|
|1296||32220||Astley Lane||Arbury and Stockingford||Bedworth||1||1||0|
|1337||31398||Smarts Road||Bede and Poplar||Bedworth||92||30||62||62|
|1347||31685||2 Royal Oak Lane & 347 Goodyers End Lane||Bedworth North and West||Bedworth||12||12||0|
|1335||31698||Alice Close||Bedworth North and West||Bedworth||8||8||0|
|1338||32395||Smorrall Lane ( between Breach Oak Cottage & Inglewood||Bedworth North and West||Bedworth||1||1||0|
|1342||32869||Land rear of 61 -67, Mavor Drive||Bedworth North and West||Bedworth||5||5||0|
|1341||32609||92 Bedworth Road, Bulkington||Whitestone and||Bulkington||1||1||0|
|1221||31108||Bedworth Rd, 48||Whitestone and Bulkington||Bulkington||4||4||0|
|1334||30803||Midland Road/Jodrell Street||Abbey and Wem Brook||Nuneaton||84||84||0|
|1340||32266||P & C Coils Ltd, Anker Street||Abbey and Wem Brook||Nuneaton||7||7||0|
|1343||33031||83 Stanley Road||Abbey and Wem Brook||Nuneaton||4||4||0|
|1226||31109||Haunchwood Rd,116-120||Arbury and Stockingford||Nuneaton||14||14||0|
|1339||32712||Land adj No 8, Fair Isle Drive||Arbury and Stockingford||Nuneaton||1||1||0|
|675||29715||Camp Hill Ph 3||Camp Hill and Galley Common||Nuneaton||317||50||207||207|
|1336||31210||Rear of 31 Plough Hill Road||Camp Hill and Galley Common||Nuneaton||12||12||0|
|1278||32083||Chesterton Drive||Camp Hill and Galley Common||Nuneaton||4||4||0|
|1224||30775||Church Ln, land off||Weddington and St Nicolas||Nuneaton||84||70||14||76|
|1203||30895||“Crossing Gates”, 102 Oaston Road||Weddington and St Nicolas||Nuneaton||11||11||0|
|1346||32336||Land at Lower Farm, Weddington Road||Weddington and St Nicolas||Nuneaton||400||30||370||210|
|1345||32438||Land rear of 194-262, The Long Shoot||Weddington and St Nicolas||Nuneaton||120||30||90||70|
|1344||32578||Cresswells Farm, The Long Shoot||Weddington and St Nicolas||Nuneaton||150||25||125||75|
|1151||31878||Lutterworth Rd, 99||Whitestone and Bulkington||Nuneaton||1||1||0|
|Outline Planning Permission Totals||1333||405||868||700|
Considerable capacity for housing has been passed by planning committee or inspectors.
The demographic demand for housing is being well serviced so developers are not racing to sign legal agreements. There is a hidden capacity for over 1100 homes that is not including in the list date April 2015. This list needs updating to 1st January and developers told their applications will be reviewed if not signed off.
|Recent Permissions & ones pending signing agreements|
|9th JUNE, 2015||32992||Site 31B007 Land off, The Long Shoot (Bellway Phase 2), Nuneaton||254|
|21st July 2015||33157||Site 42C019 – Land Corner of, Eastboro Way, & The Long Shoot||330|
|9th JUNE, 2015||33230||Site 103B009 – Land off, Astley Lane||180|
|10th March, 2015||33156||Land at Hill Farm (Site 36C002), Plough Hill Road,||262|
|10th March, 2015||33152||Erection of 6 no. additional dwellings (C3) to approval 032399 bellway phase 1||6|
|31th March, 2015||33133||24 Charles Street,||7|
|21st July 2015||33160||The Lodge, Bramcote Hospital Lutterworth Road||28|
|9th December 2014||33031||83 Stanley Road,||4|
|31th March, 2015||33219||Rear of 61-67 Mavor Drive, Bedworth||4|
|11TH AUGUST, 2015||32815||Site 106a014 – King Street Bedworth King Street||28|
|1st SEPTEMBER, 2015||33507||Site 39D035 – Land/Garage adj 5 Jodrell Street. Nuneaton||1|
|33127||72 Coventry Road, Exhall Erection of 8 assisted living units||8|
|15TH DECEMBER, 2015||33505||Site 108D009 – Land rear of 6-12 Coventry Road, Bulkington||9|
Full supply available and deliverable
Taking into account all the sites from the NBBC five year housing supply report, adding in my estimates enhanced delivery, site that have planning permission agreed subject to signing agreements etc give a total of almost 4,200 homes. This is over twice the council’s deliverable supply. I am claiming for any plausible scenario the borough today has a 5-year housing supply plus 20% for market flexibility.
Demography based scenario
This is based on the latest ONS mid-year 2014 population and updated demographic demand of 328 dwellings a year taken from figure 31 of Updated Assessment of Housing Need: Coventry-Warwickshire HMA dated September 2015 by GL Hearn. This population-based projection clearly should have taken account of sluggish population growth in the borough since 2011. The only adjustment to supply is including 200 more in supply from outline permissions to reflect reasonable numbers for Weddington sites.
|a||Borough Housing Requirement 2011 -2031||6560|
|b||Completions (1 April 2011 – 31 March 2015)||1073|
|c||Completions required since the start of the Plan Period (1 April 2011 – 31 March 2015) (328 dwellings per annum x 4 years)||1312|
|d||Shortfall for the period 1 April 2011 – March 2015 (c-b)||-239|
|e||Deliverable housing supply required over next 16 years (1 April 2015 – 31 March 2031) ( 328 x 16)+239 shortfall)||5487|
|f||Deliverable housing supply required for plan period with additional 20% buffer (20% of annual requirement of 328 dwellings = 99 dwellings)||2057.625|
|h||Shortfall/ Overprovision (g-f)||42|
|i||Number of years supply (g/e) dwellings per annum deliverable in 5 years||6.124|
Clearly assuming policy off conditions we have more than 5 years +20% supply.
Economic based scenario
I estimate there are 700 more dwellings with outline planning permission that are deliverable given the levels of economic and employment growth used by GL Hearn to produce their SHMA. I consider these levels of growth to be unlikely in the short-term and clearly have not occurred here since 2011. We have clearly had enough applications approved since April to clear the 73 shortfall even accounting for moving on timeframe.
|a||Borough Housing Requirement 2011 -2031||8200|
|b||Completions (1 April 2011 – 31 March 2015)||1073|
|c||Completions required since the start of the Plan Period (1 April 2011 – 31 March 2015) (410 dwellings per annum x 4 years)||1640|
|d||Shortfall for the period 1 April 2011 – March 2015 (c-b)||-567|
|e||Deliverable housing supply required over next 16 years (1 April 2015 – 31 March 2031) ( 410 x 16)+239 shortfall)||7127|
|f||Deliverable housing supply required for plan period with additional 20% buffer (20% of annual requirement of 410 dwellings = dwellings)||2673|
|h||Shortfall/ Overprovision (g-f)||-73|
|i||Number of years supply (g/(e/16)) dwellings per annum deliverable in 5 years||5.837|
Unrealistic prosperity scenario
In this scenario I assume all the implausible assumptions made by GL Hearn in arriving at their 496 homes per year come true including a net population rise of 910 per year. It is unreasonable to backdate this requirement before 2015 as the updated SHMA was done on the basis of needs at the point of the update. Any claimed under delivery is already built into the requirement. New assessment is in effect a reset of the plans trajectory, the average population rise in the borough since 2011 is 255 a year. With a population rising at 510 a year we could delver from a 5 year supply assuming 20% market flexibility of around 3000 of the homes with permission, allocated or just waiting for legal agreements to be signed from the 4,200 that the council or myself have identified.
|d||Shortfall for the period 1 April 2011 – March 2015 (c-b)||0|
|e||Deliverable housing supply required over next 16 years (1 April 2015 – 31 March 2031) ( 496 x 16))||7936|
|f||Deliverable housing supply required for plan period with additional 20% buffer||2976|
|h||Shortfall/ Overprovision (g-f)||24|
|i||Number of years supply (g/651) dwellings per annum deliverable in 5 years||6.048|
Updating 5-year supply to 1 st January 2016.
Moving the 5-year period forward to start on 1st January 2016 should show an improved position. Clearly the required delivery would need to increase by ¾ of either 328, 410 or 496. On the supply side more of the 969 homes in table A, which were outside the 5-year window would now be viable. This includes the full 400 at lower farm. Also many of the recent applications in Table B should be finalised. Clearly the developers and the council should not be dragging feet on signing agreements if there was really a significant backlog.
The reality is the working age population of the Borough is declining and the level of housing demand is fictitious.
Keith Kondakor 27th December 2015
Pride in Camp Hill update to HHC OSC 17 dec 2015-12-20 1.2 Project Achievements
The schemes key achievements in 2013/14 and 2014/15 were:
Phase 2 – Village Centre
· Lovells started building the remaining 59 properties as part of its Eton View development. They are looking at approximately 2 years to complete this final build programme.
Phase 3 – Barratt Mercia
· There were a total of 79 completions from Barratts for April 2013 to March 2014. This rose to a total of 92 completed sales for April 2014 to March 2015